A big increase in coal production and a higher dispatch volume were the noteworthy features of January’s figures, though neither were enough to see year-to-date-figures for FY20 recover substantially. With demand from the power sector only just starting its recovery, the non-power sector was able to secure a larger delivery volume than the low point in Q2.
Production and dispatch are more or less in balance when averaged over the last 12 months but still languish at mid-2018 levels.
Growth of power plant stockpiles has slowed, but quantities are rivalling those of 2016 at the same point. In 2017 there were times where every tonne of coal at the power plants was outweighed by 2 1/2 tonnes at the pithead. The systematic de-stocking by Coal India and SCCL means that these numbers are now about equal.
In just a few weeks, peak power plant stocks will be reached. Will they break the 2016 high of 40 MT?
A second annual re-stocking rate peak of about 150,000 tonnes per day has now subsided, but it may be starting to stabilise again above 50,000 tonnes per day.
Only a handful of plants have critically low stocks this year.
Coal consumption for power commenced its recovery in January…
…but averaged over 12 months the deficit compared to the longer term growth trend is especially evident.