The dramatic recent drop in generation continues to be borne almost exclusively by coal, with lower capacity factors and a deficit in generation that had reached 22,000 GWh relative to the year before by early December.
With overall generation also in decline, it’s a possibility that FY20 could end with an actual year-on-year decline in total generation. While renewable generation has stalled (mostly because of lower wind), it has not shared thermal’s absolute decline. Hydro continues to bear most of the burden of keeping this year’s total generation above last year’s.
Both this year’s lower wind and the continuing solar increase are apparent in the chart below, while overall renewable generation growth has stalled for the last three months.
For the last seven months, net thermal additions have bucked the trend and almost kept pace with solar additions. However, overall renewable capacity additions, plus hydro, still progress more quickly than coal plant additions.